{"id":126,"date":"2021-09-27T17:42:30","date_gmt":"2021-09-27T16:42:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research-sites.cardiff.ac.uk\/spatial-design-network-analysis-sdna\/?p=126"},"modified":"2025-01-22T08:39:37","modified_gmt":"2025-01-22T08:39:37","slug":"sdna-for-reference-class-forecasting-with-explainable-ai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research-sites.cardiff.ac.uk\/spatial-design-network-analysis-sdna\/sdna-for-reference-class-forecasting-with-explainable-ai\/","title":{"rendered":"sDNA for reference class forecasting with explainable AI"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"entry-header\">sDNA is now at the core of adapting <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sbs.ox.ac.uk\/about-us\/people\/bent-flyvbjerg\">Flyvberg<\/a>\u2018s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/conceptually.org\/concepts\/reference-class-forecasting\/\">Reference Class Forecasting<\/a>\u00a0megaproject outcomes appraisal \u2013 using explainable AI to appraise new town, CBD, road and rail infrastructures:<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><em>A SEM-ANN adaptation of reference class forecasting for the assessment of large-scale urban planning vision,\u00a0<\/em>Land Use Policy, Zhou, Y., Zhang, L., and Chiaradia* AJF.<\/p>\n<p>Available\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/authors.elsevier.com\/a\/1dh4DyDvMI9ZL\">here<\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.landusepol.2021.105701\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Key items of interest are:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>the need to appraise early front-end visioning scenarios based on relatively sparse data<\/li>\n<li>infrastructure projects appraisal needs to be able to incorporate network impacts which are notoriously difficult to identify and model.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>sDNA contributes analyses of existing and proposed scenarios of urban rail network (MTR), road network and pedestrian network to a structural equation model (SEM) to determine significant variables which are fed into an artificial neural net (ANN) giving a form of explainable AI. Pedestrian network is here proxied via road network. The case study is a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lantau.gov.hk\/en\/lantau-tomorrow-vision\/index.html\">megaproject<\/a>\u00a0in Hong Kong HKSAR,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2834326\">China<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"post-129 media-129\" class=\"image align-none\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/research-sites.cardiff.ac.uk\/spatial-design-network-analysis-sdna\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/21\/2025\/01\/download.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"sDNA is now at the core of adapting Flyvberg\u2018s\u00a0Reference Class Forecasting\u00a0megaproject outcomes appraisal \u2013 using explainable AI to appraise new [&hellip;]","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":129,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"cu_profile":[5],"class_list":["post-126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sdna","cu_profile-cooperch-en"],"meta_box":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research-sites.cardiff.ac.uk\/spatial-design-network-analysis-sdna\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research-sites.cardiff.ac.uk\/spatial-design-network-analysis-sdna\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research-sites.cardiff.ac.uk\/spatial-design-network-analysis-sdna\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research-sites.cardiff.ac.uk\/spatial-design-network-analysis-sdna\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research-sites.cardiff.ac.uk\/spatial-design-network-analysis-sdna\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=126"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/research-sites.cardiff.ac.uk\/spatial-design-network-analysis-sdna\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":130,"href":"https:\/\/research-sites.cardiff.ac.uk\/spatial-design-network-analysis-sdna\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126\/revisions\/130"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research-sites.cardiff.ac.uk\/spatial-design-network-analysis-sdna\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/129"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research-sites.cardiff.ac.uk\/spatial-design-network-analysis-sdna\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=126"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research-sites.cardiff.ac.uk\/spatial-design-network-analysis-sdna\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=126"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research-sites.cardiff.ac.uk\/spatial-design-network-analysis-sdna\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=126"},{"taxonomy":"cu_profile","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research-sites.cardiff.ac.uk\/spatial-design-network-analysis-sdna\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cu_profile?post=126"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}